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Was getting unemployed people into employment a key priority for the Conservative Government? Attempts included the New Back to Work Plan, former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s promise to tackle what he called ‘sick-note culture’, and choices for the Spring Budget in 2023, with the announcement of a £7 billion Employment package. However, despite policy initiatives, unemployment levels in the UK continue to be high.

Why is the employment ‘epidemic’ a growing problem, despite such initiatives?

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), 4.4% of people were unemployed between February and April 2024, equivalent to 1.44m people. Issues many unemployed are up against – long-term sickness, mental health problems, and early retirement, or caring responsibilities, inabilitities to find and retain jobs due to labour market demands, or gaps in skills and experiences required.

The problem of unemployment is growing. In most of the public sectors, such as health, social care, education, and the police force, there is a shortage of staff. Meanwhile, the Confederation of British Industry found that 38% of businesses reported that labour shortages were holding back their ability to invest and grow.

A look back at Conservative Government actions on unemployment

The New Back to Work Plan included a promise to implement tougher benefit sanctions for those not actively looking for work, trial possible reforms for the fit note process to make it easier and quicker for people to get specialised work and health support, and the launching of the WorkWell service.

Additionally, in April 2024, former Prime Minister Sunak gave a speech at the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) on eliminating ‘sick note culture’, claiming it as a ‘lifestyle choice’ for those capable of working. Sunak’s intention to strip away the power GPs had to give sick notes sparked outrage within the charity and welfare sector, with the British Psychological Society stating that ‘the Prime Minister is taking the approach of attempting to minimise the mental health challenges […] The government should be prepared to invest the proper funds into mental health services.’

Labour’s plans to tackle the unemployment issue

With a new Labour Government established, with a different vision and different priorities, what is being said in regard to the unemployment epidemic? During the Labour campaigning period, the party promised a major programme of reform to support more people into work and bring the benefits bill down. In their manifesto, Labour has made ambitious promises, including reforming employment support with a system underpinned by rights and responsibilities. Furthermore, they have also stressed the importance of bringing Jobcentre Plus and the National Careers Service together to provide a national jobs and careers service.

In addition, Labour has made promises to help those with illnesses and disability into work, as they are more likely to face discrimination and structural barriers. Labour has promised to devolve funding so local areas can shape a joined-up work, health, and skills offer for local people. Moreover, parallel to the Conservative Government, Labour also proposed a Back to Work Plan within their first week of being in office. They plan to create new national jobs and career services; develop new work, health, and skills plans for the economically inactive, led by Mayors and local areas; and to introduce a Youth Guarantee to create more opportunities for training, apprenticeships, or help to find work for all young people aged 18-21 years old.

This growing epidemic needs to be at the heart of the welfare agenda for the new Government, given the pressures it is putting on public sector workers. Whether the initiatives announced so far can bring down the number of unemployed people, we are yet to discover.

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During the King’s Speech, an Employment Rights Bill was promised by the Labour Government. The Bill aims to deliver on policies set out in the Plan to Make Work Pay. Commitments in the plan include banning exploitative zero-hour contracts; ending fire and rehire; strengthening statutory sick pay; making parental leave, sick pay, and protection from unfair dismissal available from day one for all workers; and making flexible working the default from day one.

The Bill has not been introduced yet, but Labour have promised to introduce it within 100 days of entering Government. Ahead of that, this week, the Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds convened a meeting with trade unions and business leaders to discuss the plans.

Looking at the attendance list, it appears that Ministers have tried to balance the competing interests of unions and businesses. Attendees included the Trades Union Congress, Unite, UNISON, Unite, and the GMB, along with business groups such as the CBI, the British Chambers of Commerce, the Federation of Small Businesses, and the Institute of Directors.

Trade unions welcomed the proposed changes, viewing them as a chance to improve pay and job security. The TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak welcomed the meeting as ‘an important chance for unions and businesses to discuss the shared gains that the government’s reforms will bring’.

However, business groups were more cautious and asked the Government not to rush without consultation on the specifics of the Bill. FSB’s Tina McKenzie, said she hopes they will ‘soon start a proper, meaningful and constructive engagement process as it moves from campaigning into practical policy making’. She also hopes ‘the Government starts to demonstrate it is prepared to try and reduce harm to employment, small business, and the economy from any and every negative impact of these proposals’. Similarly, CBI’s and IoD’s representatives also said further consultation would be crucial.

Finding a balance between competing interests will be a challenge for Labour to tackle in the next few months. According to a Government press release, ‘trade union and business representatives will be invited to continue engagement on the Plan to Make Work Pay via similar meetings, as well as share vital insights via the upcoming consultations’.

All of the proposals represent a considerable departure from current practices, and officials will have to think carefully about the detail, what exceptions may apply, how the reforms will work in practice, and how they will be implemented.

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In attempts to highlight its importance, Labour dedicated two pages of its manifesto to equalities in a section entitled ‘Respect and opportunity for all’. Here, they promised to ‘ensure [that] no matter whatever your background, you can thrive’. The King’s Speech proceeded to mention two bills relating to equalities; the Draft Equality (Race and Disability) Bill and the Draft Conversion Practices Bill.

The Draft Equality Bill aims to enshrine in law the full right to equal pay for disabled people and ethnic minorities. It will also introduce mandatory ethnicity and disability pay reporting for employers with over 250 employees. With the Draft Conversion Practices Bill, Labour have committed to extending the scope of the conversion therapy ban introduced by the last Government to make it trans-inclusive. The bill will work to introduce new criminal offences to target acts of conversion which are not covered by existing legislation.

The details of this have been quite vague so far – presumably because this issue remains controversial, and the party divided on transgender rights. Labour have said the ban would not extend to ‘legitimate psychological support, treatment, or non-directive counselling’, but it remains to be seen exactly how the Government plans on defining conversion therapy in the draft legislation.

Both of these bills build on promises that were laid out in the Labour manifesto, but there are areas in which the new Government has failed to deliver yet. One criticism being faced by the party is that despite having had Vicky Foxcroft as the Shadow Minister for Disabled People, Labour did not reserve this role for their new Government, instead splitting the remit into various departments. As such, Sir Stephen Timms was made Minister of State for Social Security and Disability in DWP and Stephen Kinnock is now Minister of State for Care (with responsibilities for overseeing disabilities and SEND) in DHSC. This also comes after Foxcroft publicly criticised the former government for not appointing a Minister to this role.

Fazilet Hadi, Head of Policy at Disability Rights UK, said that this approach ‘is problematic on so many levels’. Further to this, Hadi said that simply adding equality briefs to ministers who already have major operational duties signals that tackling inequality for those with protected characteristics is not central to Labour’s vision of a changed society.

Similarly, Labour has also failed, so far, to deliver on its promise to create a Department solely dedicated to Women and Equalities. At the 2023 Labour Conference, former Shadow Secretary of State for Women and Equalities Anneliese Dodds said: ‘If Labour wins the next election, I will become the UK’s first ever Secretary of State for Women and Equalities, with a seat at the top table, dedicated to advocating for women in all their diversity in every Cabinet conversation.’

Having held this position for nearly three years, many were baffled by the secrecy and the delay of the announcement – only to find out this role was abolished and the remit was split between Dodds and Bridget Phillipson – who both, again, have other ministerial responsibilities. According to i News, a Downing Street spokesperson denied that the role had been downgraded, and additionally the Fawcett Society, a high-profile charity for women, praised Starmer for appointing not just one, but two Ministers to the role.

With summer recess to soon draw to a close, the resumption of Parliament in the autumn will come as the true test for Starmer and his cabinet. It is to be seen how the opposition party may confront the redrafted Equality Bill, or may criticise the Government’s overall approach to tackling the issue of equalities.

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Written by Helen Stott and Michael Kane.

It was nearly a month ago that the United Kingdom voted to deliver Labour to their first electoral majority since 2005, leaving the Conservatives with a measly 121 seats.

The democratic repercussions of this result are potentially seismic, with Labour propelled to over 400 seats on a 33.7% share of the UK wide vote. Yet, research from the IPPR showed that only 52.4% of adults voted. The Conservatives and Labour – two parties who have come to dominate UK politics over the last 100 years – only received just over 55% of the vote share combined.

How have the parties responded to this? What have we learned one month on from the General Election?

Labour’s first few days: the formation of the Government

The day after Labour achieved its landslide victory, Starmer’s senior team will have been well aware of the need to hit the ground running. There was no time to waste on last minute reshuffles, so Starmer’s Government for the most part mirrors the makeup of his Shadow Cabinet when they were Opposition. There are a few notable exceptions, however. Starmer was forced to find alternatives when former Shadow Cabinet members Thangham Debbonaire and Jonathan Ashworth both lost their seats. More surprisingly, Emily Thornberry was snubbed for Attorney General after shadowing the role for over three years. Starmer instead appointed Lord Hermer, who has more extensive legal experience and, interestingly, was a key signatory of a letter which espoused that Israel must be guided by international law. This perhaps signals that Starmer has heard the concerns of voters who rejected Labour over its position on Israel, and is prepared to shift to a more critical stance.

Labour set their priorities and agenda

Later in the month, Labour used the King’s Speech to set out their immediate priorities for Government, launching a jam-packed legislative agenda, with almost 40 new Bills introduced. The speech focused on Labour’s economic growth mission, with measures announced to reform planning laws, renationalise railways, and create a new publicly-owned clean energy company in Great British Energy.

However, Starmer has faced his first rebellion, as seven Labour MPs broke the party whip to vote for an SNP tabled amendment calling to end the two-child benefit cap. There had been speculation that the Government would compromise on this due to external pressure, but instead Starmer responded by suspending the rebels – including former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell. These strong arm tactics send a clear message to the new intake of MPs that Starmer expects absolute loyalty, but will his refusal to abolish this much derided policy backfire?

The Labour leadership have signalled that they would be open to ending the two-child limit in the future, but at the moment they are standing firm that public finances are not in the place for immediate action. Backbench MPs will be appeased by Starmer’s commitment to setting up a child poverty task force, but if this does not start delivering change soon, we may see more significant rebellions in future.

Throughout Labour’s first few weeks in Government, senior Cabinet members have had their own individual moments in the sun to help Labour set the policy and political agenda in their favour. On 11 July, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Wes Streeting announced an investigation into the NHS, also resuming talks with junior doctors regarding industrial action.

Minister for Women and Equalities Bridget Phillipson continued this reset sentiment as she conducted a question and answer session on 16 July, noting that her priority was to ‘reset the relationship between the Department and the education sector.’ Phillipson also launched a curriculum and assessment review on 19 July. On 22 July, testament to its importance to Labour’s agenda, Starmer himself spoke on Labour’s plans to establish Skills England and reform the ‘broken’ skills system, which he argued had failed young people. A day later, and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall reasserted the focus on employment and training as she unveiled the Government’s plans to tackle economic inactivity among young people.

In a similar vein, earlier this week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave a statement to the Commons, where she said public finances were in an even worse state than they had believed prior to the election. Reeves claims that Labour have inherited a ‘black hole’ of £22bn of unfunded spending promises, announcing the cancellation of various infrastructure projects committed to by the previous Government, and means testing the pensioners’ winter fuel payment in order to fill the gap. Part of the ‘black hole’ Reeves mentioned is from the cost of giving public sector workers a 5.5% pay rise – something which the previous Government avoided doing. Shadow Chancellor Jeremy Hunt strongly repudiated Reeves’ claims and accused her of ‘laying the ground for tax rises’.

Reeves has since confirmed tax rises will be announced as part of October’s Budget, although she reaffirmed that Labour would stick to its manifesto promise not to hike national insurance, VAT, or income tax. Whether tax hikes will be accompanied by further spending cuts remains to be seen.

Is Vaughan Gething’s resignation Keir Starmer’s first hiccup as Prime Minister?

With the drama of the General Election, attention had been pulled away from devolved politics. Then Vaughan Gething announced he will be stepping down as First Minister of Wales after just 78 days in office. Gething’s premiership was plagued by scandal from the very beginning, as he faced questions over his election campaign donations, and the sacking of ministers over leaked text conversations. This led Plaid Cymru to pull out of their cooperation agreement with Welsh Labour, and Gething was forced to resign after facing a no confidence vote and numerous cabinet resignations.

Cabinet Secretary for Health Eluned Morgan looks set to become the next First Minister, as she was elected unopposed as Welsh Labour’s first female leader. Writing for Labourlist, former Welsh Cabinet Minister Lee Waters said there needed to be ‘honest debate’ about the future of Welsh Labour, cautioning that it could go the same way as Scottish Labour in the 2010s. Waters also pointed out that while First Past the Post served Labour very well during the most recent Westminster elections, the Welsh Parliament will be moving to a new proportional system in 2026, which may leave Welsh Labour in trouble if their polling doesn’t go up.

For Starmer, this debacle over the Welsh leadership may draw an unwelcome comparison to former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s struggles with the devolved Governments upon the establishment of Holyrood and Senedd in the 1990s. Blair had famously struggled initially to get his preferred candidate as either Welsh or Scottish First Minister. Whether the Welsh Government proves to be a hiccup for Starmer is yet to be seen.

Conservative leadership race begins in a surprisingly low key fashion

Conservative leadership battles are often seismic in both their political significance and their domination of political debate. Testament to this: the ousting of Margaret Thatcher in 1990; John Major standing down, only recapture the leadership against John Redwood in 1995; and David Cameron’s ‘no notes’ victory against then favourite David Davis. Yet, the current leadership contest seems far removed from previous Conservative leadership battles. Perhaps this is a reflection of the Conservatives’ sidelined position against a Labour Government, who control the Commons so emphatically.

As we stand, the Conservatives will continue with ousted Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as the Leader of the Opposition (LOTO) until their new leader is elected on the 2 November. Nominations were formally declared earlier this week for Tom Tugendhat; Mel Stride; James Cleverly; Kemi Badenoch; Robert Jenrick; and Priti Patel (read more about the leadership candidates and their backgrounds here).

This should be a significant Conservative leadership race, with the winner required to guide the party through a potentially fragile five years, squeezed from the left (the Liberal Democrats) and the right (Reform UK). The Conservatives must also negotiate their identity in the face of a post-Brexit UK, as the party has not won an outright majority in the Commons since the 1992 General Election without a major electoral promise on Europe. While this observation may be unwelcome to some it signifies the wider identity crisis that the future leader must confront and address to unite the party and challenge Labour at the next election.

What to expect in the months ahead

As Parliament heads into recess, the Government will be looking to prepare as much as possible for what will inevitably be a packed Parliamentary schedule in Autumn. Parliament will return in September for a brief session before adjourning again for party conference season. We can expect the mood at the Labour party conference to be triumphant, although the leadership may also face pushback on the two-child benefit from a disgruntled membership.

Meanwhile, at the Conservative party conference, there will be a debate between the four remaining leadership candidates – a key moment in determining the future of the party.

For regular updates on what is happening in UK politics and public affairs, sign up to our weekly Point of Order newsletter, going out every Friday morning.

Written by Michael Kane and Helen Stott. 

With the King’s Speech, Labour may have hoped to represent an emancipatory moment after almost a generation in what seemed to be perennial opposition. However, it was instead borne out of the political, economic, and democratic challenges that riddle the UK right now.

It’s 15 years since Labour’s last State Opening of Parliament, where Gordon Brown’s Government’s final legislative programme was influenced by external factors. Specifically, one key proposal focused on strengthening the governance of financial services amid the backdrop of increasing negative sentiment towards bankers and a global financial crisis. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first legislative programme may also be shaped, and perhaps constrained, by significant external factors.

Labour are facing what Chancellor Rachel Reeves has called the worst fiscal inheritance since 1945, with a ballooning tax burden and national debt, mixed in with struggling public services, alongside a wider feeling of political apathy. For instance, the 2024 British Social Attitudes revealed that 79% of participants were dissatisfied with the way the UK is governed. Meanwhile, University College London’s ‘Policy Lab’ report found 74% of the public now believe that Britain is rigged to serve the rich and influential.

This feeling arguably manifested in the 2024 General Election, with only 52% of adults in the UK voting, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research. Interestingly, this is the lowest figure since universal suffrage for those over 21 years old was granted in 1928. This is complemented by a sentiment of democratic deficit around Labour, with their 170 seat majority being propelled by a meagre 34% of the vote. To add to this, the election highlighted the relative fragility of Labour’s electoral coalition, with the Greens doing well in more cosmopolitan urban areas, and Reform UK finishing second in a significant number of Labour’s traditional ‘red wall’ heartlands.

In this sense, Starmer’s legislative programme comes at a time of immense challenges for the country where few actually believe political institutions can address them.

Economic growth and interventionism

Prior to the election, many would have been forgiven for tuning out of Labour’s economic message for how repetitive it was – the central tenet being that the UK must return to economic growth. It formed the first mission of Labour’s five: to make the UK the fastest growing economy in the G7. Only four days into Government, and Reeves reminded us that striving for economic growth would dictate HM’s Treasury activity. This focus on economic growth stems from two places – Labour’s repudiation of the UK’s economic stagnation under the previous government, and the practical necessity of funding their plans for public services, housing, and the impending net zero and digital transition. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones admitted to Channel 4 that the only way to ‘find more money to spend on public services is by growing the economy’.

The pre-eminence of growth is also evident in King Charles’ remarks, which were composed by the Government. In an age of 24-hour news, most people’s exposure to the King’s Speech comes through brief coverage of the King’s remarks, rather than the Bills themselves. Therefore, it’s significant that King Charles opened his speech by detailing the Government’s mission to secure economic growth before detailing the means that Labour will employ to achieve this: 1) planning reform; 2) GB Energy; and 3) Skills England.

All three of these tenets arguably represent a shift to a more interventionist approach from Labour. Their proposals on planning reform would represent a sudden departure from the Conservatives’ inaction through the implementation of new compulsory purchase compensation rules and mandatory housing targets. Whether this proves to be morally contradictory with Labour’s desire to devolve decision making to local communities (the English Devolution Bill) remains to be seen.

Likewise, the legislation to create GB Energy clarified that it will not just serve as an investment vehicle but will ‘own, manage, and operate clean power projects’ – a radical shift, perhaps, from the implication by Cabinet Minister Pat McFadden that it may only serve as a funnel for private investment. Skills England is the proposal that ties these measures together. The new national skills body would develop a ‘national and local picture’ of skills shortages through working with the ‘Migration Advisory Committee, unions and the Industrial Strategy Council’. Such a proposal is a direct attempt to remedy skills gaps and labour shortages – as illustrated by the New Economics Foundation. These gaps, along with low productivity, impeded the prior Government’s pursuit of growth and limited its ability to address the housing crisis or the impending net zero transition.

These three proposals under the overarching vision of economic growth may indeed illustrate a more interventionist approach than initially suspected – however, only once the Government’s tax and spending plans are elucidated in the forthcoming Budget can this be confirmed.

Interventionism continued through the New Deal for Working People

Years winning the 2024 General Election, Labour had been clear that their plans for economic growth would go hand-in-hand with those to strengthen workers’ rights. The Government used the King’s Speech to introduce the Employment Rights Bill, which the party says will deliver on the policies set out in its New Deal for Working People. This includes requiring that employers accommodate flexible working ‘as far as reasonable’; banning zero hour contracts; ending ‘fire and rehire’ practices; removing ‘unnecessary restrictions’ on trade unions; and strengthening other employment rights, such as parental leave, sick pay, and protection from unfair dismissal. Alongside the Bill, Labour said that they will introduce a ‘genuine living wage’ and get rid of age bands for pay.

The last Government had somewhat adversarial relationships with the trade unions, and as Labour come into power we will see this relationship shift drastically. However, that doesn’t mean it will all be plain sailing. It is true that Labour has a structural link with the trade union movement going back to the party’s creation, and unions like Unite remain some of Labour’s biggest donors. However, Starmer and Reeves have repeatedly stressed that they want Labour to be the ‘natural party of business’, and under Starmer’s leadership the proportion of party funding received from companies and individuals has dwarfed the contribution of unions. Sharon Graham, who won the election to become General Secretary of Unite in 2021, has taken quite a pragmatic stance towards Starmer’s Labour party – she has not threatened dis-affiliation, but has been very clear that her unions’ continued financial support comes with strings attached. Prior to the General Election, she refused to give the union’s endorsement to Labour’s manifesto, and there has been protracted conflict between the Labour leadership and the unions over what some see as a watering down of the original commitments on workers’ rights.

The contents of the Bill announced during the King’s Speech last week will likely please the unions, but the legislation will have to go through debate in Parliament, and business will be lobbying to make sure the new regulations don’t impact their bottom line too much. Business leaders have already voiced their concern about some of the proposals. Earlier this year the President of the Confederation for British Industry said the UK needed to avoid a ‘European model’ of excessive regulation, warning of the ‘unintended consequences’ of Labour’s plans. The difficulties Labour will have in implementing this legislation are symptomatic of the fragile coalition they need to hold together should they survive another term in government.

What’s missing and what’s next?

While the King’s Speech proved to be a comprehensive legislative programme with over 35 Bills, it is equally important to pay attention to what was omitted. King Charles’ speech made reference to the Government’s intention to regulate AI and reform the apprenticeship levy, but there weren’t any Bills introduced on these topics. This indicates that they may be on the Government’s future legislative agenda, but are not an immediate priority.

Ending the VAT tax break for private schools was also mentioned, and this will likely be in the forthcoming budget. Meanwhile, legal migration and the two child benefit limit were not explicitly mentioned. This is interesting, considering how pervasive these issues have been and how they encapsulate some of the electoral challenges Labour face; from the left with the Greens and new intake of Independents, and from the right with Reform UK.

However, since the King’s Speech, there has been some mention of these issues, with Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson admitting on the morning of the 22 July that the Government would consider ending the two child benefit cap – a stance that Starmer later endorsed. On the same day, Starmer’s speech on plans to establish Skills England posited the reforms through the lens of migration, as he condemned the UK’s overreliance on foreign labour.

While the King’s Speech elucidates how Labour will begin to address the political, economic, and democratic challenges that riddle the UK right now, it is not a comprehensive guide to Labour’s plans. Further clarity will likely come in Labour’s forthcoming Budget and their plans to address the important issues yet to be tackled.

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